I am not a pessimistic type of person. However, we had quite a big crisis in the world last October (2008) and I thought world top politicians and intellectuals would take the opportunity to start a debate to improve international governance of the world. I though they would see that our Economy based in permanent growth is not sustainable anymore (in practical terms, not in ecological ones, I mean) and that this model is dated.
Capitalism was put in jeopardy last October, people got crazy for months, presidents from all over got together, helped companies in trouble and that was it. Nobody dared to propose a solution or to open a valid debate among opinion makers on how to solve this kind of problem, typical in capitalism but now typical in the world.
Politicians are politicians anywhere. In the west (Europe and Americas) they are so limited by their congresses and bureaucracies today that they cannot reform anything without a huge coalition. They do not have power to change things as different type of government become institutionalized (this is good) and people get scared to reform things (this is bad). This crisis was a perfect excuse to make things happen, at least partially. What will happen, then?
The way I see the world, I strongly believe that despite of having room for growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America, we will have another huge global crisis in the future due to the fact that people won’t need to buy so many things in some years. People are not only changing their behavior towards buying goods, but goods are also getting unneeded. What will happen with construction companies when all roads, subways and houses get done? What will happen with refrigerator factories when everybody gets one? What will happen with fashion industry when everybody gets sucked of filling up their wardrobes? I don’t know the answer but definitely there will be not enough jobs to everybody. Like the “Easter Island” syndrome, where natives consumed all resources until the end of their civilization we will face a crisis provoked not by the end of resources but by the end of meaning in endless consumption.
The next crisis or the next following the next will be called something like “the big one”, 1929 will look like joke if our leaders do not move.
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